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Is your Prediction Model giving the Right Results??

  • By admin
  • November 16, 2012
  • 25 Views

When you take into account real world events, such as forecasting probable award nominees or outcome of elections, predicting tools becomes the only measure. So, prediction market is an important tool to assist the corporate, governments and various agencies to base their future plans and events and form a definite outline or shape of a particular situation at that particular time on which their plan of action is based.

Say for instance, a company is forecasting doubling of their sales on being successful, which will act as a booster in getting the new contract. It implies that planning production, manpower and material and arranging the same to meet the targets. What is an amusing thing is that even a political party will avoid deferring of election if there is prediction that fiscal conditions of nation is going to be bad! The prediction market is based on the principle of believing in information from traders or people directly connected with particular situation and consolidating the facts and information from various intelligence agencies. However, the information is constantly reviewed and developments, alterations and adjustments are made from time to time. On a layman term, prediction market is mostly based on belief.

Nature of Prediction Market

We generally find three basic characteristics of prediction market.

  • Firstly, they are based on collective belief of traders/insiders.
  • Secondly, a final decision is being arrived at by contacting disperse agencies and sources and from various intelligence agencies, thereby taking into account different considerations.
  • Thirdly, the traders become important if you find that value coming down of certain stock. Actually, it becomes assumable in such situations that there is deviation from actual situation.

How to Counter the Situation?

The company wanting goods for services will have to make alternative arrangements and the party awaiting possession will have to be set on hold. The traders will have to make adjustments and make alternative arrangements. The traders further needs to investigate problem to advise company to increase manpower to enable production of goods in time or pay compensation to supplier or arrange from elsewhere. Similarly, the construction to be hastened or alternative arrangement has to be made.

Possible Remedies

Whenever there is problem, the remedial action to be followed is to adjust the time of predicted situation. However, the analysts believe that it is not totally accurate. The academic studies have indicated that performance of prediction market is as good as polls or even better than that. You will also find at times that it is quite different than what has been predicted.

So, it is vital for intelligence agencies and commentators to do a commendable job of assessing the mood of voters correctly as per states, communities and as per prevailing issues in a nation. Secondly, the prediction markets are being used by corporate for sales forecasts as is the lifeline of any company. The entire growth of any company is dependent on the sales strategy.

They constantly require updating all relevant information and investigating the reasons for increase or decreasing in sales to redefine their planning of production, raw material etc. Big names of the industry are adopting various methods and techniques as well to assess sales and market information for critical analysis.

At Market Quotient, we satisfy our clients with error free predictions on the market, its trends and possible changes. Thus, if you wish to know more on this and make prediction full proof then do write to us at contact@marketquotient.com.